Flows

Stablecoin exchange netflow (z-score)

The previous flow normalized against its own past month, which is what makes it comparable with the other flow signals.

Why it matters

The value of having all four flow signals share the SAME construction is that they can be put side by side. A +2 z in stablecoins toward exchanges and a +2 z in bitcoin toward exchanges are unusual to the same degree, even though they mean opposite things; comparing the raw figures — dollars against BTC, different scales, different eras — would leave no honest way to say which of the two moves is the more exceptional.

Build it yourself

Compare: set a flow and its window here, then try the same z on the bitcoin-flow indicator — same rarity, opposite readings.

z = (Today's flow − 30d mean) ÷ 30d stdev
Exchange-netflow z-score

Illustrative example numbers for practice — not real data.

How it's calculated, step by step

  1. Window of the previous 30 days, minimum 14 days of history, same as the other three flow series.
  2. z = (today's flow − mean) ÷ standard deviation, with the same generic alert thresholds (|z| ≥ 2 warning, ≥ 3 critical).
Coincident signal. Comparing z-scores across series is only legitimate for saying which is more unusual within its own history — not for saying which matters more. None of the four flow signals demonstrated predictive ability under the project's corrected method.

Chart

This is real Bitcoin data, computed from the blockchain — not the illustrative example above.

Data last updated on 2026-09-09.

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