Indicators
50 indicators, grouped by category.
Valuation
Price (USD)
BTC's market price in dollars — an input, not a derived indicator.
Coincident signalMVRV Ratio
Compares what all circulating bitcoin is worth today against what it cost, on average, the last time each coin changed hands.
Coincident signalMVRV Z-Score
The same market-value-versus-average-cost comparison as MVRV, but normalized by its own recent volatility so very different eras become comparable with each other.
Coincident signalNUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
The same gap between market value and average cost that MVRV measures, expressed as the percentage of the whole market sitting on an unrealized gain or loss.
Coincident signalRealized price
The average cost at which each circulating bitcoin was acquired, aggregated across the whole network — a dollar reference price derived from the realized cap.
Coincident signalSTH-NUPL (short-term holders)
The same unrealized-profit arithmetic as NUPL, restricted to coins that have sat unmoved for less than 155 days: the recent buyers.
Lagging signal / confirmationLTH-NUPL (long-term holders)
The other half of the same split: unrealized profit on coins that have sat unmoved for more than 155 days.
DescriptivePower-law valuation residual (z)
How many standard deviations today's price sits from the long-run trend that best describes Bitcoin's whole history.
DescriptiveDip-buy exposure (retired)
The rule that turned the previous residual into a position multiplier — retired on 2026-09-07 after it was shown to subtract value at every scale.
Spending behaviour
SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio)
Compares, for the coins moving today, the price they're sold at against the price they were bought at — averaged across the day's movements.
Coincident signalSTH-SOPR (short-term holders)
The same SOPR, restricted to coins that had gone under ~155 days without moving.
Coincident signalLTH-SOPR (long-term holders)
The same SOPR, restricted to coins that had gone over ~155 days without moving.
Coincident signalCoin Dormancy (CDD, BTC-days)
Combines how much bitcoin moves today with how long each coin had sat still, giving more weight to old coins that suddenly become active.
DescriptiveShort-term holder supply (%)
Percentage of circulating supply that has gone under 155 days without moving (same cutoff as STH/LTH-SOPR, but looking at stock, not spending flow).
DescriptiveSupply in profit (%)
Percentage of circulating supply whose average acquisition cost (by the month it last moved) sits below today's price.
DescriptiveLiveliness
Compares, across the whole history of Bitcoin, how much of the supply's accumulated "age" has been spent versus saved — a gauge of whether aggregate behavior looks more like saving or spending.
DescriptiveVaultedness
The flip side of Liveliness: what fraction of Bitcoin's accumulated supply "age" remains vaulted rather than spent (Vaultedness = 1 − Liveliness).
Coincident signalRealized profit/loss (USD/day)
How many dollars of profit or loss were actually locked in today, summed across every coin that moved.
Coincident signalSell-Side Risk Ratio
How much value is being realized today — profits and losses together, without netting — compared against the total acquisition cost of the entire supply.
Network usage
NVT Ratio (raw)
Compares Bitcoin's total valuation with the value it moves on-chain that same day — a rough "P/E ratio", the same idea used to compare a stock's price against its earnings.
Coincident signalNVT Signal (90d smoothed)
The same idea as NVT, but dividing by a 90-day average of transfer value instead of the raw daily figure.
DescriptiveActive addresses
Distinct addresses active on-chain per day — a rough proxy for network usage/adoption.
DescriptiveTaproot adoption (% of outputs)
Percentage of new transaction outputs that use Taproot (activated November 2021).
DescriptiveLive UTXOs (count)
Total number of currently-unspent transaction outputs — a proxy for how fragmented the supply is.
Mining
Miner fee revenue (USD/day)
Total transaction fees paid to miners that day, in USD.
Lagging signal / confirmationHashrate (EH/s)
Total estimated compute power securing the network, derived from mining difficulty.
Lagging signal / confirmationHash Ribbons (30d/60d hashrate)
Compares the hashrate's recent trend (30 days) against its somewhat longer trend (60 days), to spot when weaker miners are capitulating or recovering.
Lagging signal / confirmationDifficulty Ribbon compression
How close together several mining-difficulty moving averages sit (from 14 to 200 days), relative to their own spread.
Derivatives
Basis carry, annualised (%)
The annual interest collected by someone long spot and short the perpetual — the one number in this whole project that is contractual income rather than a forecast.
DescriptiveDVOL — Deribit implied volatility index
How much volatility the options market expects over the next 30 days, expressed as an annualised percentage.
DescriptivePut/Call open-interest ratio
How many live put options there are for every live call option on Deribit.
DescriptiveTaker buy/sell ratio
What share of the day's traded volume was started by an impatient buyer, willing to pay the price already sitting on the book.
Flows
Exchange netflow (BTC/day)
How many bitcoin entered known exchange wallets today minus how many left.
Coincident signalExchange netflow (z-score)
Today's netflow compared against what has been normal over the past month, in standard deviations — the form in which the number becomes readable and alertable.
Lagging signal / confirmationTotal stablecoin supply (USD)
How many dollars are issued in USDT and USDC combined — money already inside the crypto system without being invested in anything.
DescriptiveSSR — Stablecoin Supply Ratio
How many times stablecoin supply fits inside Bitcoin's market cap: how much dry powder there is relative to the size of what it could buy.
Coincident signalTrading-desk netflow (USD/day)
How many stablecoin dollars entered known market-maker, OTC-desk and fund wallets today, minus how many left.
Coincident signalTrading-desk netflow (z-score)
The same flow as the previous indicator, normalized against its own past month.
Coincident signalStablecoin exchange netflow (USD/day)
The same stablecoin dollars, but looking at wallets labeled as exchanges rather than as trading desks.
Coincident signalStablecoin exchange netflow (z-score)
The previous flow normalized against its own past month, which is what makes it comparable with the other flow signals.
Technical analysis
RSI (14)
What share of the last few days' movement has been to the upside, on a 0-100 scale.
Lagging signal / confirmationMACD line
The distance between a fast (12-day) and a slow (26-day) average of price.
Lagging signal / confirmationMACD histogram
How far the MACD line is pulling away from its own 9-day average — acceleration, not position.
Coincident signalBollinger %B
How many standard deviations price sits from its own 20-day average.
Coincident signalStochastic %K (14)
Where in the last 14 days' range today's price sits, from 0 (the low) to 100 (the high).
Coincident signalWilliams %R (14)
The distance from today's price to the 14-day high, on a −100 to 0 scale.
Coincident signalCCI (20)
How far price strays from its 20-day average, measured in units of its typical average deviation.
Lagging signal / confirmationEMA trend strength (50/200)
How far above or below the 50-day average sits relative to the 200-day one, as a proportion.