Valuation

LTH-NUPL (long-term holders)

The other half of the same split: unrealized profit on coins that have sat unmoved for more than 155 days.

Why it matters

It's almost always positive, and that's what makes it interesting: when a cohort that bought cheap and waited goes into loss, something large has happened. Read next to STH-NUPL it gives a reading neither gives alone — short-term holders losing while long-term holders stay deeply in profit is the normal state of a correction inside a bull cycle; both losing is something else.

Build it yourself

Same formula as STH-NUPL, different cohort — and a huge difference in average cost, because these coins were bought much earlier.

LTH-NUPL = (Price − Average cost) ÷ Price
LTH-NUPL

Illustrative example numbers for practice — not real data.

How it's calculated, step by step

  1. It starts from the same daily supply-by-age-band snapshot STH-NUPL uses.
  2. Long-term holders = all supply minus the three short bands; their cost is the sum of the cost of the 155-days-and-older bands.
  3. LTH-NUPL = (cohort BTC × price − acquisition cost) ÷ (cohort BTC × price).
Lagging signal / confirmation. It's the slowest signal in this category by construction: coins need 155 days of stillness to enter the cohort, so it reacts to the cycle months late. It's for confirming which phase you're in, not for anticipating it.

Chart

This is real Bitcoin data, computed from the blockchain — not the illustrative example above.

Data last updated on 2026-09-09.

← All indicators