Flows

Trading-desk netflow (z-score)

The same flow as the previous indicator, normalized against its own past month.

Why it matters

This series needs normalizing far more than its BTC counterpart, for a concrete reason: desk volumes are extraordinarily lumpy. A single transfer from a large firm can be a hundred times a quiet day's activity, so the dollar figure is practically unreadable at a glance — a huge spike might be a signal or might be Tuesday. The z-score turns that into the one question that can be answered: compared with the last few weeks of this same series, is this unusual?

Build it yourself

With a very lumpy series the standard deviation is huge — check how far today's flow has to move for the z to even reach 2.

z = (Today's flow − 30d mean) ÷ 30d stdev
Desk-netflow z-score

Illustrative example numbers for practice — not real data.

How it's calculated, step by step

  1. The window of the 30 days before the scored day is taken, with a minimum of 14 days of history.
  2. z = (today's flow − window mean) ÷ window standard deviation. It's exactly the same construction as BTC's exchange-netflow z-score, reused as-is rather than duplicated.
Coincident signal. Same alert thresholds as the BTC side (|z| ≥ 2 warning, ≥ 3 critical) because the rule is generic with nothing exchange-specific in it. And the same underlying caveat: a high z says something unusual happened today in the wallets we can see, not that price is about to move.

Chart

This is real Bitcoin data, computed from the blockchain — not the illustrative example above.

Data last updated on 2026-09-09.

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