Volatility

Realized volatility (30d, annualized %)

How much price has swung over the past month, measured with the standard deviation of its daily changes and projected to a year — the standard way volatility is expressed in financial markets.

Why it matters

It tends to compress toward multi-month lows before large moves — but it says nothing about direction, only that a bigger move is more likely soon. It's best read as "pay more attention to the other signals right now", not as a signal by itself.

Build it yourself

Take an already-computed daily volatility and watch the one step that turns it into the published annualized figure.

Annualized vol % = daily stdev % × √365
Annualized volatility

It starts directly from an already-computed daily deviation, to isolate the annualization step — the full log-return calculation is detailed below.

Illustrative example numbers for practice — not real data.

How it's calculated, step by step

  1. The daily log return is computed: ln(today's price ÷ yesterday's price), for every day.
  2. The (population) standard deviation of those returns is computed over a rolling 30-day window.
  3. It's annualized by multiplying by the square root of 365 and expressed as a percentage.
Leading signal. Leading in a narrow sense: compressed volatility reliably anticipates a BIGGER move, but doesn't say in which direction.

Chart

This is real Bitcoin data, computed from the blockchain — not the illustrative example above.

Data last updated on 2026-09-09.

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