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NVT Signal (90d smoothed)

The same idea as NVT, but dividing by a 90-day average of transfer value instead of the raw daily figure.

Why it matters

One of the on-chain valuation indicators with the best track record in independent (not vendor) literature for spotting over-extension: readings above the upper band have preceded market tops; below the lower band, bottoms. The 90-day smoothing was proposed by Dmitry Kalichkin (Cryptolab Capital, February 2018); Willy Woo, who popularized the original NVT, cites NVT Signal > 150 as a possible market top and < 45 as an accumulation zone, as a historical reference.

Build it yourself

Same ratio as NVT, but with a calmer denominator (a 90-day average).

NVT Signal = Market cap ÷ 90d average transfer value
NVT Signal

Illustrative example numbers for practice — not real data.

How it's calculated, step by step

  1. It starts from the same daily BTC transfer value as raw NVT.
  2. Its 90-day moving average (sliding window) is computed.
  3. Smoothed USD transfer value = that average × the day's price.
  4. NVT Signal = market cap ÷ smoothed USD transfer value.
Coincident signal. It's still a gauge of "how stretched valuation is", not a precise trigger for the exact turning point.

Chart

This is real Bitcoin data, computed from the blockchain — not the illustrative example above.

Data last updated on 2026-09-09.

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